Stock market boom and catalysts for 1,500 units

Where are his investors? Athens Stock Exchange Due to external factors (political risk, Middle East and Athens Stock Exchange buy Once again it performed its miracle.

Instead of breaking below around 1,360 points and triggering fresh liquidations, the common index reached five straight session highs and comfortably surpassed the 1,437.65 points reached in early March.

After at least four failed attempts to break the 1,425-1,437 levels in the past two months, Tuesday's session ended at 1,447.82, taking the broad index to its highest point since May 2011 and paving the way for the start of the next leg of the uptrend. It started in the last two years. The positive trend continued during yesterday's session, the sixth consecutive uptrend.

But don't rush. He is right to say that the way may be “open” as it will be a few days before we can say with some degree of certainty that we are starting to look towards 1,500 units, an area that many market analysts believe is his next target. General code.

But before we jump into the future, it's worth looking back at the past few days to try to better explain the sudden change in scenery. What happened in the last seven days to improve investor sentiment? Things certainly calmed down a bit in the Middle East as Iran and Israel's attitude gave international markets the impression that neither side wanted to escalate the conflict between them.

The fall in the price of fuel in international markets, as well as the relatively negative trend of gold and silver, probably confirms this assessment, as well as the improvement of the climate in international stock markets. But that alone did not help our market.

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The rating agency's decision was unexpected by markets S&P Global Keeping Greece's debt rating stable but raising the outlook from “neutral” to “positive” is sure to have many investors turning to the Athens stock market. Some announcements about the country's economic performance also helped, including the announcement of the primary surplus of the state budget in 2023, which was finally set at 1.9%. GDP instead of the official forecast of 1.1%.

The above factors created them Investors We should recall the very optimistic reports of many domestic and international stock analysts who have set price targets higher than the current price of shares of many major companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange. Add to all this the extremely high demand for the 30-year bond issued by the Greek government yesterday, the issue was closed dozens of times and the interest rate was set at a clearly lower level than expected.

But can we be sure that yesterday's upward split will bring the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange to 1,500 units any time soon? Obviously we cannot, we can never be sure how stock market indices will move. The truth is that the upward split pattern is very solid and leaves no doubt about the strength of the market.

This is not enough, however, as the real “test” in such cases is how investors react to the market's first small “pullback” after an upward split. If the general index bounces back below 1,425 – 1,437 units in the next few days, we will get an even stronger positive sign of continuation. However, to do this, certain conditions must be met.

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Obviously, there shouldn't be any geopolitical developments that will cause fear again for investors. Beyond that, the strong fundamentals and good prospects of most of the most important listed companies, and investors' confidence in the economic policy pursued, are two things that could help the shares of the Greek stock market.

First, the period for publishing the financial results of listed companies for the first quarter of 2024 starts today, with Mytileneos at the top of the list (we do not forget that many companies have not yet published their results in 2023 but some of them are going to affect the overall climate of the Athens Stock Exchange).

Over the next twenty days we will hear from several important companies and the market will be able to get a good picture of how the year started and how the managements of the companies assess how things will develop for the rest of 2024.

It should be pointed out here that although we are talking about a twenty-day period, we are actually referring to fewer stock market meetings as the Easter holidays are approaching and this year also coincides with May Day. We'll hear news from all banks this time around, which continues to attract investment interest, and it's unlikely we'll hear more positive ratings than what the market is expecting.

If the trend we've become accustomed to over the past few quarters continues, and company management's guidance proves to be higher than analysts' and investors' estimates, strong investment headwinds are more likely. Blows the Greek stock market.

The second, which will play a role in the course of the market in the next period, is not investment and business nature, but political nature. We are of course referring to elections European ParliamentIt is about 45 days now.

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As we well know, Political uncertainty is one of the main adversaries of the stock markets and we are sure that the significant increase in political tension in the country has played a role in the difficulty of our stock market continuing its upward trend in recent weeks. The smoother the run-up to June 9, the better investors will feel on the Athens stock market.

Already, the political climate seems to have calmed down a bit over the past few days and is likely to play a minor role in the stock's volatility.

At the same time, some recent public opinion polls ahead of European elections do not point to an election result that could create a sense of political risk returning. Of course, no one can be sure about the political developments of the coming weeks, and often things can change suddenly.

However, if a new significant increase in internal political tension is avoided and the polls in the next period do not differ significantly from the past few days, we can say that the Athens stock market will turn upside down. Strong. Of course, since the European elections are not only taking place in Greece, we have reservations about the reaction of our stock market in the event that their results create a general concern across Europe.

However, pending the European elections, under the conditions we mentioned earlier, the Athens stock market seems likely to overcome the doubts that have dominated it for weeks and try to reach its next upside target. . It doesn't really matter who it is.

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