The new market engine

Written by Apostolos Manthos

The most important changes have been made in the price formation of the general index, thus leaving the feeling of strong weakness in escaping above the limit of 1,300 units in the last sessions, which is “psychological”, from the past and not carrying some specific signs of strong chart resistance. Coverage, or incredibly high coverage, of 22% of the National Bank's public contribution to 8.04 times the Financial Stability Fund's “constraints” on the movement of the public index. The bank increased its weighting to 82%, years after Coca-Cola took the reins from HBC.

Thus, Greek National sits at the top with 10.27% participation in the general index, followed by Coca-Cola HBC with 9.82%. So the -2.35% National Bank stock, which closed at 6.24 euros last Wednesday, now has more weight in the market than it did before the public offering. At the same time, the changes made in the next three positions that make up the top five are very interesting, with PPC taking third place with 5.218%, OPAP fourth with 5.148% and Alpha Bank fifth with 5.094. %. The listed five together control more or less 35.5% of the listed index's pulling power, of which two are banking houses, two quiet powers, which I call OPAP and Coca-Cola HBC, and one revolt, which is not expected to happen in 2024. Leave us alone, PPC. The irony is that the Mytilineos group in the over-capitalization FTSE/ATHEX large cap index is “adjusted” behind the National Bank in second place, 9.95%, while in the general index it is not (!) .

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So, under the fresh data brought by this new market engine, we catch the general index walking around the fence at 1,300 to 1,310 units on daily chart analysis, but heading towards the 9-year high zone with no escape plan above that. 1,330 to 1,351 units. A move initiated by a suitable plan and trade turnover has the potential to drive the general index over 1,400 points. In the current scenario, to see the index above this level, National Bank would have to shake off 7 Euros, Coca Cola HBC 28.70 Euros and BBC 13 Euros. A possible reference point for a short-term pullback in the index lies between 1,264 and 1,250 units in search of fresh buying power.

We go to the index of the large cap FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap, which can be seen in the chart analysis to lose the upward trajectory given by the “C” channel since last October. The downward segment of the lower side of the channel alerts us to a possible realization of a short-term sideways or sideways downward trend, with a prickly area crossing the 3,170 to 3,220 zone to the upside. The lower limit seems to be 3,060 points. However, if the index easily crosses above 3,220 units, the next target is set at 3,356 units in December 2014. In this index, the top 5 regulators, based on percentage weight, are National Bank with 10.28%, Mytilineos with 9.95%, Coca-Cola HBC with 9.83%, Eurobank with 9.79% and Alpha Bank with 8.20%. In total, that is, they control 48% of the movement of the index. Here, from what you understand, the upstream “exporter” role will be played by Mytilineos.

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We expect more from the banking index, but so far it seems to be staying away from the scenario of a reversal of the 1,090 to 1,118 resistance zone. After all, it is characteristic that he has refused to cross the threshold of 1,090 units three times. This chart data, if not reversed in the coming days, could bring a slight volatility towards the support level of 1,034 to 1,028 points. However, when the index determines its upward movement, we should expect 1,235 units or almost +17% from the current values ​​of the index as the first stopping point.

But breaking away from making a new 12-year high was the FTSE\ATHEX mid-cap index, which broke upward from last summer's peak of 2,224 points, paving the way for the March 2010 resistance area of ​​2,450 points. Pay attention, because in 2024 we will have “heats” in this indicator. You only need to know that 24% of the movement of the index is determined by the mood of the Hellenic Stock Exchange (HEX) and the new player… Intralot (INLOT).

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy

** Reprinted from Kefalio Newspaper

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