Inflation in February was relaxed than expected, which is a reception sign of the Federal Reserve, as it is a result of President Trump’s trade war, which takes the chance of higher prices and slow growth.
The Consumer Price code increased by 2.8 per cent to 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis. It was a step down from January Surprisingly, a large 0.5 percent increase and the expectations of economists came down.
The “core” measurement of inflation, which eliminates turbulent food and fuel prices, makes it better to make the basic trend feel better, and less. The code was up 0.2 percent from the previous month or 3.1 percent above the previous year. Two percent were below the increase in January.
The Labor Statistical Bureau’s data underlines the equality of the central bank’s advancement towards its 2 percent target. Prices for consumer staples, such as eggs and other groceries, are rising again, but the costs for other varieties, such as petrol, have fallen. The 4 percent drop in flights in February is the primary driver of better data than expected.
Egg prices rose by 10.4 per cent in February, as Avian Influenza exploded continued to increase the nationwide egg deficit. Prices for eggs have risen nearly 60 percent since last year. Food prices rose by 0.2 percent or 2.8 percent from the previous year.
The prices of cars used in February rose by 0.9 per cent, although the new vehicle prices have fallen slightly. In January, the largest driver’s insurance of the largest increase in the largest increase in the index of the index rose again, but at a very slow speed, 0.3 percent. This is more than 11 percent more than last year.
Housing -related costs have been a smallest 12 -month profit since December 2021, and the shelter code has increased 4.2 per cent. From January to February it rose 0.3 percent.
A bar chart that shows changes from January to February in the selection of the types of Consumer Price Index is adjusted in the season. The use of the pipe used in the use of the use of the gas service was very high and air fares were very falling.
Monthly changes in February
Pipe utility gas service
Meats, chicken, fish and eggs
Tobacco and smoking products
Grains and bakery products
Primary rent
All items except for food and energy
Monthly changes in February
Pipe utility gas service
Meats, chicken, fish and eggs
Tobacco and smoking products
Grains and bakery products
Primary rent
All items except for food and energy
Mr. The big question is when Trump’s fees begin to affect the consumer prices very significantly. On Wednesday, the president appreciated the data of February, which was “very good news.”
“We have done the best in a very short time,” he said.
During the period covered by February data, Mr. Only 10 percent of Trump imposed on Chinese imports. Ryan Sweet, chief American economist of Oxford Economics, said, “In February, there is no clear impact on the CBI, including clothing, furniture and electronic prices.” On the contrary, in the next few months, Mr. He expects Trump’s tax on China, which has doubled this month with other fees that are now in practice.
Peter Sir, President of the Macro Strategy of the Academy Securities Company, Mr. Trump said the biggest outcome would be the biggest effect in the next months if they follow mutual fees on business partners. The president has threatened to raise US fees to match other countries that can raise the prices of products from foreign countries.
Beyond the possible price hike, Mr. Sir said, he was very concerned about the management’s plans to reduce the vision of the economy and reduce government spending as a result of fees.
“Fear of growth is real,” he said.
Uncertainty about the path of the president’s policies, Mr. While waiting for the purpose of Trump’s plans, there is also the fear that businesses will begin to hire and invest in the investment.
Those concerns have been in the latest steps to monitor how consumers feel about the future. According to New York’s Federal Reserve Bank’s latest survey, consumers’ expectations of their financial situation were “significantly worse” because they stick to the inflation to 3.1 percent. The role of consumers who expect that one year to one year is financially in a bad situation has risen to its highest point since November 2023. The average perception of the disappearance of future credit fees has risen to the highest level since April 2020.
Considering its decree to continue the low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market, the combination of low growth and re -rise prices puts the central bank in a difficult position.
In January, central authorities justified their ability to stop another round of interest rate reduction and wait for the greater improvement of inflation because the economy is doing better. If the inflation begins to show the signs of cracks before the inflation is fully overcome, it may be less than how the central bank responds.
Mr. In 2019, when the Central Bank had to deal with a trade war in Trump’s first tenure, a total of three -quarters of interest rates were reduced in 2019 in an attempt to protect the economy from further weakening.
Mr. In more detailed comments about Trump’s fees, the financial background at this time was different at Fedit leader Jerome H. Powell agreed. “We came from the highest inflation and we did not return to 2 percent of a standard basis,” he said at an event on Friday.
Mr. Powell added that the Central Bank’s usual response to fees would be “observing” any method of increasing, but the authorities stressed how long -standing inflation expectations are changing.
“When we wander the incoming information, we focus on separating the signal from the noise when we develop Outlook,” he said. “We don’t need to rush. We are well positioned to wait for more clarity.”
It suggested that when the officers gathered next week, the Central Bank would extend its suspension for a reduction of 4.25 to 4.5 percent.
Traders in the future markets are betting on the rates that can reduce rates this year, each to the quarter of a point. It reflects more cuts, more than a few weeks ago, and the economic perspective.
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